Critical review of conformational B-cell epitope prediction methods.

Accurate in silico prediction of conformational B-cell epitopes would lead to major improvements in disease diagnostics, drug design and vaccine development. A variety of computational methods, mainly based on machine learning approaches, have been developed in the last decades to tackle this challenging problem. Here, we rigorously benchmarked nine state-of-the-art conformational B-cell epitope prediction webservers, including generic and antibody-specific methods, on a dataset of over 250 antibody-antigen structures. The results of our assessment and statistical analyses show that all the methods achieve very low performances, and some do not perform better than randomly generated patches of surface residues. In addition, we also found that commonly used consensus strategies that combine the results from multiple webservers are at best only marginally better than random. Finally, we applied all the predictors to the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein as an independent case study, and showed that they perform poorly in general, which largely recapitulates our benchmarking conclusions. We hope that these results will lead to greater caution when using these tools until the biases and issues that limit current methods have been addressed, promote the use of state-of-the-art evaluation methodologies in future publications and suggest new strategies to improve the performance of conformational B-cell epitope prediction methods.

SpikePro: a webserver to predict the fitness of SARS-CoV-2 variants.

MOTIVATION: The SARS-CoV-2 virus has shown a remarkable ability to evolve and spread across the globe through successive waves of variants since the original Wuhan lineage. Despite all the efforts of the last 2 years, the early and accurate prediction of variant severity is still a challenging issue which needs to be addressed to help, for example, the decision of activating COVID-19 plans long before the peak of new waves. Upstream preparation would indeed make it possible to avoid the overflow of health systems and limit the most severe cases. RESULTS: We recently developed SpikePro, a structure-based computational model capable of quickly and accurately predicting the viral fitness of a variant from its spike protein sequence. It is based on the impact of mutations on the stability of the spike protein as well as on its binding affinity for the angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) and for a set of neutralizing antibodies. It yields a precise indication of the virus transmissibility, infectivity, immune escape and basic reproduction rate. We present here an updated version of the model that is now available on an easy-to-use webserver, and illustrate its power in a retrospective study of fitness evolution and reproduction rate of the main viral lineages. SpikePro is thus expected to be great help to assess the fitness of newly emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants in genomic surveillance and viral evolution programs. AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION: SpikePro webserver http://babylone.ulb.ac.be/SpikePro/. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

Analysis of the Neutralizing Activity of Antibodies Targeting Open or Closed SARS-CoV-2 Spike Protein Conformations.

SARS-CoV-2 infection elicits a polyclonal neutralizing antibody (nAb) response that primarily targets the spike protein, but it is still unclear which nAbs are immunodominant and what distinguishes them from subdominant nAbs. This information would however be crucial to predict the evolutionary trajectory of the virus and design future vaccines. To shed light on this issue, we gathered 83 structures of nAbs in complex with spike protein domains. We analyzed in silico the ability of these nAbs to bind the full spike protein trimer in open and closed conformations, and predicted the change in binding affinity of the most frequently observed spike protein variants in the circulating strains. This led us to define four nAb classes with distinct variant escape fractions. By comparing these fractions with those measured from plasma of infected patients, we showed that the class of nAbs that most contributes to the immune response is able to bind the spike protein in its closed conformation. Although this class of nAbs only partially inhibits the spike protein binding to the host's angiotensin converting enzyme 2 (ACE2), it has been suggested to lock the closed pre-fusion spike protein conformation and therefore prevent its transition to an open state. Furthermore, comparison of our predictions with mRNA-1273 vaccinated patient plasma measurements suggests that spike proteins contained in vaccines elicit a different nAb class than the one elicited by natural SARS-CoV-2 infection and suggests the design of highly stable closed-form spike proteins as next-generation vaccine immunogens.